The key takeaways are:
- UCP sales were impacted by seasonal issue, secondary sales for ACs in Q1FY16 was down about 1 per cent due to erratic weather (especially in Northern markets) and lower customer off take;
- Trade inventory is higher as market was preparing for higher growth (about 10-15 per cent) and accordingly was keeping higher inventories; however, the upcoming festive season should help clear inventory;
- Q2 being a lean season, management believes any significant pricing action is unlikely by industry players; but, promotions are likely to pick up in Q3 (which is a normal practice during festive season); and
- In the MEP (minimum energy performance) segment, domestic heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) market is yet to see recovery.
Drop in oil prices has added to the uncertainties in international market; the management, however, expects spending in Dubai and Qatar to continue. Possible pressure on margin in the near-term due to inventory in trade across various industry players could lead to near-term under performance.
We believe that Voltas is the best proxy to play AC sector growth. Improving margin in the MEP segment should also support earnings.
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