Saturday, May 2, 2015

Nifty ends below 200-DMA on MAT woes

Benchmark indices ended the truncated week 1.5% lower amid selling pressure by foreign funds on continued worries surrounding retrospective taxation.  Weak corporate earnings and concerns over weak monsoon forecast further dampened sentiment.

In the week to April 30, the 30-share Sensex ended down 426.63 points or 1.55 per cent at 27,011.31 and the 50-share Nifty shed 123.75 points or 1.49 per cent at 8,181.50.

In the broader markets, BSE Mid-Cap index lost 0.18 percent and Small-Cap index dipped 0.58%.

Analysts believe that in the May series, the Nifty can witness a reversal in its current negative trend as a pattern of bottom out formation is seen at its multiple supports of 8,145-8,160 zones with short covering activity.

Continued selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) amid tax concerns has cost India the most favored emerging market (EM) tag in April. Foreign flows into Indian stocks so far this month are $1.8 billion, much lower as compared to peers South Korea ($3.9 bn), Taiwan ($3.4 bn) and Brazil ($2.3 bn), show data from Bloomberg.

The rupee closed at 63.43 on Thursday on the back of dollar demand from importers and weakness in equities.

The market was shut for trading on Friday on account of Maharashtra Day holiday. 

MARKET OUTLOOK

"Markets last week has broken 200 DMA after a long time. We believe markets should take support at this level, as we have corrected 10 percent in month of April. This is the first big correction after Modi government came in to power. We believe the quarterly earnings should be better than street estimates. Till now IT sector had muted earnings but the private banks have slated better than street estimates. We are trading at reasonably good valuation after this correction. Currently we are trading at 19x fy 16 and therefore one should defiantly look for investing at current levels. Also positive measures from government on MAT, Financial bill, Subsidy sharing etc are likely to boost the markets. In the coming week, should see momentum in the markets and Nifty is likely to reclaim 8450 mark in near term and face resistance at that level. Sectors to watch out for in the coming week are metal, banking, infra and energy," said Rahul Shah, associate VP, Equity Advisory Group of Motilal Oswal. 

KEY STOCKS

ICICI Bank soared 7.5% after several domestic brokerages upgraded the stock with ‘buy’ rating on expectations of improvement in asset quality. Gross NPAs were up 3.78% versus 3.4% quarter-on-quarter while Net NPAs were up 1.61% versus 1.27% quarter-on-quarter.

Maruti Suzuki climbed 5.6% after reporting a strong 61% year on year net profit growth at Rs 1,284 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2015 on the back of higher volumes, material cost reduction initiatives, favourable foreign exchange and lower sales promotion expenses.

Housing finance major HDFC shed 6% after reporting a marginal rise of 8% in standalone net profit at Rs 1,862 crore for the quarter ending March 2015. 

Vedanta ( Sesa Sterlite) after posting a Rs 18,718-crore loss for the fourth quarter of FY15 on account of a massive impairment charge at its oil and gas business arm, Cairn India, caused by a sharp fall in crude prices.

Axis Bank surged over 7.5% after the bank’s net profit grew 18% to Rs 2,181 crore on the back of a 20% in net interest income and 21% increase in other income.

In the telecom space, Bharti Airtel lost 4.4% after the consolidated net profit fell 12.6% to Rs 1255.3 crore in the March quarter compared with Rs 1436.5 crore in the December quarter.

Among other notable losers, ITC slumped 7.5% and HUL shed 4.5% as the gloomy forecasts about the monsoons have raised fears of further decline in rural demand. 

OUTLOOK

The debate on the Constitution Amendment Bill in respect of Goods and Services Tax (GST) next week and the passage of the Land Acquisition Bill will be keenly awaited.

The outcome of monthly manufacturing and services sector surveys will be in focus.

The next batch of March quarterly results will dictate the trend on the bourses. 

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